What Moves Matcha Prices

The raw material is agricultural, so prices are not fixed.

Harvest conditions

Tencha comes mainly from first flush, picked April to May.

Weather affects both yield and quality. Frost, insufficient sunlight, rainfall — all reach the crop.

With the primary harvest happening once a year, that year's conditions carry directly into supply.

Cost of shading

Covers go over the field while shoots develop, with light managed until harvest. Weeks of labour and materials.

Wage and input costs feed into raw material prices.

Demand-side change

Japan's 2025 green tea exports reached roughly ¥72.1 billion in value, close to double the prior year, on 12,612 tonnes — about 1.4 times. A sixth consecutive record.

Value outpacing volume means unit prices rose.

MAFF attributes the growth largely to expanding demand for powdered tea as a food ingredient in Europe, North America, and ASEAN. The US leads by volume at roughly 30 percent.

Supply cannot respond quickly

Rising demand does not translate into production in the short term.

New plantings take years to reach harvest. Cultivars suited to shading are limited — even Yabukita, the most widely planted, does not darken properly under cover.

Stone mills manage roughly 40 g per hour. Equipment can be added, within limits.

Sweetened products absorb some of it

Part of the weight is sugar, so matcha price movements have a diluted effect.

The higher the matcha ratio, the more exposed the product is.

What buyers can do

Switching products when prices rise changes the flavour.

Mixing lighter to stretch a package works up to a point, but exceeding the two-week-to-a-month window means declining quality.

Buying what you can finish, when you need it. That remains the least troublesome approach.

Figures reflect statistics as of 2025.