Matcha Supply Is Not Keeping Pace

Demand rose quickly. Raw material has become the constraint.

The shape of the demand

Japan's 2025 green tea exports reached roughly ¥72.1 billion in value, close to double the previous year, on 12,612 tonnes — about 1.4 times.

Value growing faster than volume means unit prices rose. Supply is not matching demand, and price is registering it.

Production cannot expand quickly

Tea plants take years New plantings require several years before they can be harvested. Demand does not translate into supply on any short timescale.

Shaded cultivation is labor-intensive Covers go over the field while shoots develop, with light managed through to harvest. Weeks of work, and materials.

Tencha comes from first flush The primary harvest is once a year. There is no multiplying it.

Milling is slow Stone mills turn slowly to avoid friction heat that would drive off aroma and degrade color — roughly 40 g per hour. Equipment can be added, but not without limit.

Cultivars limit it further

Cultivars suited to tencha are few.

Yabukita, the most widely planted cultivar in Japan, is poorly suited because its yellowish leaf does not darken under cover. Uji cultivars — Samidori, Asahi, Gokou — work, but acreage cannot be expanded overnight.

Prices follow

Constrained supply against rising demand moves prices.

For confectioners and foodservice operators using matcha as an input, that arrives as higher purchasing costs.

What consumers see

More products carrying the word matcha, and a wider range of what is actually inside.

Powder from leaf never grown under shade, or green tea powder supplemented with flavoring and coloring, enters the market.

Reading ingredient lists matters more than it used to. Matcha and powdered green tea are different products, and lists run in order of weight.

Figures reflect statistics as of 2025.